2021 Draft Preview: Will Bednar (RHP)

School: Mississippi St
Position: RHP
Height/Weight: 6’2” 229lbs
B/T: R/R
D.O.B.: 06/13/2000
Previously Drafted: No

Scouting Report

Will Bednar just finished his sophomore year for the Mississippi State Bulldogs, starting the final game of the NCAA College World Series. The Bulldogs rode his arm straight to their first CWS National Championship. In game three, on three days rest, he threw six no-hit innings against the vaunted juggernaut offense of Vanderbilt. This came after one of the most dominating outings in CWS history against Texas, where he went six innings and struck out 15. After the NCAA regular season, Bednar looked to be a fringe first rounder. With his recent performance on the biggest of college stages, he has likely driven up his value to mid/late first round. 

Bednar is from Valencia, Pennsylvania. He attended Mars Area High School and played baseball under his father, Andy. He verbally committed to Ohio State in his sophomore year. Will missed his junior year with a shoulder injury. He was pursued heavily and signed by Mississippi State during his senior campaign after an uptick in his velocity and refinement of his slider.

In his freshman year at Miss. St. the Covid pandemic cut the season short, and he worked out of the bullpen. His mid 90’s fastball and biting slider kept his ERA at 1.76 and his WHIP at a stellar 0.98. His sophomore season saw more of the same with a nice ERA of 3.12 with a 1.06 WHIP, keeping hitters to a .214 avg. The Bulldogs went 9-1 in his starts, and his 92.1 innings led the team. 

Scouting Grades

*Scouting grades are according MLB Pipeline, grades may vary between different publications*

Prospect Overview and Future Outlook

Bednar has a fastball that routinely sits 93/94 topping out at 97 with arm side run. A major plus for Bednar is that he naturally generates very high spin rates from his ¾ arm slot. His fastball has a lot of carry that keeps hitters from squaring it up in the top of the zone. Texas coach David Pierce said his hitters “couldn’t figure out Bednar”. This was evident as he put up 15 K’s (7 in a row at one point!) on Longhorn batters in their recent tussle in the CWS.

His slider is said to be one of the best in the draft by Keith Law. The pitch is a high spin rate masterpiece that induces a lot of ugly swings. It is tight and late breaking with a glove side downward break at anywhere between 81-86 mph. It does seem like the slider comes from a slightly lower release point. This might be a place for improvement in the future.

https://youtu.be/q3p0CjeGU8c

Will’s changeup and curveball are both decent pitches. That said, they are not nearly on the same level as the fastball and slider. Both pitches are more for a different look to keep hitters off his fastball and slider combination. His changeup tends to lack arm speed to truly throw hitters off. The righty will likely need to continue to develop a plus third pitch to stick in the rotation. His curveball has longer sweeping movement and is his least thrown pitch. Command and tunneling on his curveball will be needed to get this pitch as anything other than a change of pace.  

Bednar’s command is exceptionally good, which is shown in his 139/26 K/BB ratio. He does run into issues occasionally with command due to his long arm action. His fastball will run hard arm side out of the zone, and his slider will bury in the dirt when he loses his release point. It clearly doesn’t happen that often, but he may need to shorten up his arm swing for repeatability. As seen in the warmups on this video you can see some of the run when his mechanics aren’t in line. 

Mock Draft Outcomes

As mentioned above, Will Bednar seems to have really made his stock shoot up from his CWS performances. He had slots projected mostly in the high 20’s pre-CWS. After his foray into greatness with his outings versus Vanderbilt and Texas, he has seen his projected slot move up as high as #11 on MLB.com projected to the Nationals. Kiley McDaniel at ESPN.com has him slotted to the Braves at #24. Prospects Live (15 – Brewers), Sporting News, and Baseball America (18 – Cardinals) are a little more optimistic, slotting him in the middle teens. It should also be noted that Keith Law does not have him slotted for the first round, despite his assertion that his slider is one of the best in the draft.

Potential Fit with the White Sox

In Bednar, we have a college “fringe” first round guy who had an outstanding CWS and raised his draft status. As fans of the White Sox, we have seen this story unfold before. We know the White Sox love guys who perform under the limelight. This story sounds eerily familiar to that of Carson Fulmer.

While this story has a similar key point, I think there is a rather large difference. This isn’t a max effort pitcher. Bednar has a bit more of a solid frame, and requires less effort to get his pitches where they need to be.   There was a big point of contention as to whether Fulmer’s delivery would be repeatable and whether it was a future health concern. This is not much of an issue with Bednar’s mechanics. His shoulder injury history has been mentioned elsewhere. As it did not come up again in his collegiate career, I don’t know how much attention it warrants.

Like his collegiate team’s mascot, Bednar, is indeed a “Bulldog”. He has a competitive mindset, and will work to improve his skill set. He has shown that since he was a kid, working to match numbers with his older brother, Pittsburgh Pirates reliever, David Bednar. Judging by this year’s CWS, I would say he has shown the mental fortitude to come up big when it matters most. Will Bednar seems to have the makeup of a big time pitcher if he can get consistency from his secondary pitches, and with that would likely be a fast riser through the system.  

Photo Credit: Lonestarball.com

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