White Sox Prospects Prevalent on Preseason Updates
Caleb Bonemer
This is the point on the calendar when perception starts to shift. Prospect lists are being updated across the industry, reshaping how systems are viewed and where pressure points are believed to sit. Between roster construction and external evaluation, the picture around the White Sox is becoming clearer, even as decisions become harder to delay.
As spring approaches, national prospect rankings offer a useful temperature check on how the White Sox system is being interpreted from the outside. These lists are not forecasts or guarantees. MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, Keith Law, and Kiley McDaniel present a system that is narrower at the top, but clearer than it was a year ago.
Rather than reading each list in isolation, the cleaner way to interpret these updates is by following the same core names across all four outlets. Pipeline and Baseball America keep the group intact. Law’s ordering shifts, but the overlap still matters. Kiley McDaniel was the most divergent of the bunch.
The consensus top five remains consistent here, in this order. Noah Schultz, Caleb Bonemer, Braden Montgomery, Billy Carlson, Hagen Smith. The lone outlier is Baseball America extending the group by one, placing Tanner McDougal at No. 100. Schultz, Bonemer, and Carlson appeared on all four lists. Schultz had the highest rank (BA #26) among the top 100 participants, and Bonemer was placed most consistently in the upper half of the lists.
We will rank the top 30 prospects in the system here at FutureSox sometime in March or early April. Our midseason list can be read here.
White Sox Prospect Ranking Check-In
Noah Schultz
Baseball America: No. 26
MLB Pipeline: No. 49
The Athletic (Keith Law): No. 95
ESPN (Kiley McDaniel): No. 96
Noah Schultz carries the widest rank disparity across the four major prospect lists, highlighting how differently evaluators are weighing pitcher risk. Baseball America remains the most aggressive, ranking him highest and continuing to bet on his starter ceiling despite recent interruptions. MLB Pipeline places him lower but still inside the Top 100, emphasizing the 70-grade slider and overall stuff while labeling him the left-handed prospect with the most to prove entering 2026.
That framing reflects concern over a disrupted 2025 that limited his workload and slowed progress in command-driven areas tied to starter reliability. Keith Law and Kiley McDaniel are the most conservative, pushing Schultz toward the back of their lists as durability and execution questions narrow the margin for error. The divide is not about talent or a major league future, but how much uncertainty each evaluator is willing to carry into the projection.
Caleb Bonemer
Baseball America: No. 27
MLB Pipeline: No. 61
The Athletic (Keith Law): No. 44
ESPN (Kiley McDaniel): No. 34
Bonemer’s ranking spread reflects philosophy more than disagreement, with evaluators largely aligned on the bat and debating how aggressively to project it. Baseball America is the most bullish, pushing him near the top of its Top 100 on the strength of his offensive foundation and long-term upside after a professional debut that reframed his profile following an uneven prep spring. MLB Pipeline is more reserved but still firmly in on Bonemer as a Top 100 bat, emphasizing his on-base skill and physical projection while waiting for sustained performance as he climbs levels.
Keith Law slots him between those views, pointing to an advanced approach and coverage across the zone while acknowledging that his defensive future likely shifts off shortstop. Kiley McDaniel takes a similarly aggressive stance to Baseball America, projecting Bonemer as an above-average hit and power bat who likely settles in at third base and profiles as a steady everyday player with room for more, given how young he is for his level. Across all four lists, the through line is clear. Bonemer is valued for the bat first, with position secondary, and a productive 2026 would likely compress the gap between these rankings quickly.
Braden Montgomery
Baseball America: No. 73
MLB Pipeline: No. 36
The Athletic (Keith Law): No. 30
ESPN (Kiley McDaniel): No. 189
Montgomery’s rankings show one of the sharper philosophical splits in the system, driven more by how evaluators weigh certainty than by questions about talent. MLB Pipeline and Keith Law are the most confident, placing him near the top of their lists and reinforcing that view by ranking him No. 7 among outfield prospects, with Pipeline also noting that he carries the top arm grade on the list at 70. Baseball America is more reserved, slotting him lower while still viewing him as a core piece and ranking him behind only Schultz and Bonemer within the organization.
ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel stands apart by ranking the outfielder at #189 overall on the top 200 list that was released at ESPN. It’s a notable contrast that reflects skepticism about how quickly his game fully stabilizes at higher levels. Across the lists that include him, the through line is consistent. Montgomery is seen as a long-term everyday outfielder whose ceiling is widely accepted, even as opinions diverge on how soon that value becomes dependable.
Hagen Smith
Baseball America: No. 91
MLB Pipeline: No. 72
The Athletic (Keith Law): No. 58
ESPN (Kiley McDaniel): No. 127
Smith’s placement shows a reset in confidence rather than a split on talent, with evaluators recalibrating after an uneven first full pro season. Baseball America keeps him inside the Top 100 at No. 91, reflecting the belief that his late-year rebound restored credibility even after early struggles. MLB Pipeline is more assertive at No. 72, despite leaving him off its Top 10 left-handers list. They did, however, point to regained fastball life and stronger finishes in Double-A and the Arizona Fall League.
Keith Law is the most optimistic at No. 58, crediting his AFL performance as a real step back toward his college form and viewing the mechanical progress as meaningful. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel leaves Smith unranked, signaling lingering skepticism about consistency and strike-throwing over a full season. The spread underscores that Smith’s upside still carries weight, but his standing entering 2026 hinges on showing that the late momentum was a true correction rather than a short-term spike.
Billy Carlson
Baseball America: No. 92
MLB Pipeline: No. 73
The Athletic (Keith Law): No. 66
ESPN (Kiley McDaniel): No. 100
Billy Carlson’s early Top 100 traction says as much about belief in future swing refinement as it does confidence in his defensive floor, especially given that he has yet to play an affiliated professional game. Baseball America at No. 92 and MLB Pipeline at No. 73 lean on the idea that his glove already anchors the profile while leaving room for offensive growth if the White Sox can simplify his setup. Keith Law is the most aggressive at No. 66, framing Carlson as an elite amateur shortstop whose defense raises the baseline and whose bat could take a meaningful step forward with targeted mechanical changes.
ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel places Carlson at No. 100, a familiar edge-of-the-list spot that often reflects evaluators hedging rather than doubting, signaling interest in the upside without fully buying in yet. Together, the rankings reflect optimism rooted in both present defensive value and the projection that swing adjustments could unlock more offense, which would quickly separate Carlson from the back-end cluster and push him higher as soon as results arrive.
Tanner McDougal
Baseball America: No. 100
MLB Pipeline: Unranked
The Athletic (Keith Law): Unranked
ESPN (Kiley McDaniel): No. 164
Tanner McDougal’s lone appearance on Baseball America’s list highlights how differently evaluators are treating late-blooming power arms, with BA ranking him No. 100 while MLB Pipeline, The Athletic, and ESPN all leave him off entirely; outisde of McDaniel’s update placing him at #164 overall at ESPN. Baseball America’s inclusion reflects a clear step forward in strike-throwing and zone presence during 2025, which allowed his premium velocity to play more consistently rather than simply flash.
McDougal averaged 97.5 mph on his fastball, fourth-highest among BA Top 100 arms, and paired it with secondaries that missed bats often enough to change the shape of his projection. The other outlets appear more hesitant to buy in without longer track record or age-adjusted dominance, keeping him outside their Top 100s for now. The gap is less about raw stuff and more about how much weight to give a single season of progress, with BA signaling confidence that the foundation now looks stable enough to justify starter upside rather than a pure relief outcome.
Other Noteworthy White Sox Prospects
Back in December, James Fegan published a White Sox’s top prospects article for Fangraphs and within it, there was some praise for 21-year-old southpaw Christian Oppor. Fegan ranked the lefty as the #4 overall prospect in the system and he’s established himself as an “up arrow prospect”. Kiley McDaniel also ranked the former 5th rounder at #118 overall in his update at ESPN and the veteran scribe also put him with a group of prospects who could rise into the top 50 by midseason.
While 2024 5th rounder Sam Antonacci hasn’t made it onto a top 100 list for a publication yet, he is starting to get recognized throughout the industry. The Coastal Carolina product was lauded for his fielding and throwing arm while being considered the “biggest riser” in the second base group as well. Jim Callis reserved a spot on the top 10 second base list at MLB Pipeline highlighted by Antonacci’s .429 OBP in the minors last year.
William Bergolla is a 21-year-old infielder who posted a 104 wRC+ in Birmingham with the Barons last year. The infielder was ranked by Kiley McDaniel at #199 overall for ESPN and he was in the category of someone with the potential to win a batting title someday. He’s also a plus defender.
