Baseball’s annual Winter Meetings kick off in earnest on Sunday December 3rd from Nashville, Tennessee and the meetings will conclude on Wednesday December 6th. It’s expected to be a busy transactional period for the sport while free agents are expected to find homes and trade talks permeate the hotel lobby. Baseball’s only true global star could choose his team and the mystery around Shohei Ohtani’s destination will be the biggest story to follow over the course of the next week.
Major League Baseball’s second annual Draft Lottery will take place on Tuesday December 5th but some club executives will likely stay through the conclusion of Wednesday’s Rule 5 Draft on the final day of the meetings. This will be the second Rule 5 Draft with teams having a 26-man roster to potentially influence their decision making. Last year’s draft was fairly active at the top. The Rule 4 Draft remains the most significant way for clubs to procure young talent for their organization but players can still be found occasionally within this convoluted system.
As I’ve written about previously, any players currently under contract with a club who were initially signed before the end of the 2019 MiLB season and were 18 and under at the time of signing are eligible for the big league phase of the Rule 5 draft if they are not currently on a 40-man roster. Any players who were 19 or older who signed initially before the end of the 2020 MiLB season are eligible if they are not currently on a 40-man roster. College players drafted in 2020 are eligible while prep players and international signings from 2019 will be as well.
A team must have an open 40-man roster spot to select a player in the major league phase of the Rule Five Draft. The selecting team pays $100,000 to take a player. That player cannot be optioned to the minors during the entirety of the 2023 season and the player must spend at least 90 days on the active big league roster (days on the injured or suspended list do not count toward the 90-day limit). The White Sox current 40-man roster is at 39 players. They will own the 4th overall pick in the Rule 5 Draft.
Who Could the White Sox Lose?
The White Sox protected lefty Jake Eder and right hander Cristian Mena prior to the tender deadline and added them to their 40-man roster. Those were obvious moves but the club left some players unprotected as well. Righties Juan Carela and Matthew Thompson weren’t protected and neither was young slugger Wilfred Veras.
Thompson is 23-years-old and has struggled as a professional since signing out of high school after being selected in round two of the 2019 amateur draft. Carela was acquired from the New York Yankees this past July. The 21-year-old posted a 3.34 ERA in six starts for the Winston-Salem Dash. He averaged 12 K/9 in the New York system as well. Both hurlers could be members of the Birmingham Barons rotation in 2024.
Veras has bloodlines and he signed with the club out of the Dominican Republic for $200K back in 2019. The 21-year-old moved to the outfield this season and he clubbed 17 homers. He played 92 games in High-A before posting a 129 wRC+ in 38 games with Double-A Birmingham. Veras has some promise as a hitter and he’s a name to monitor going forward within the White Sox’s system. Thompson and Carela could find themselves in the Barons’ rotation in 2024 as well. There are plenty of other Sox’s farmhands who are eligible to be selected next Wednesday but it doesn’t seem like any of the available players are likely to be plucked away by other organizations.
Who Could the White Sox Add?
The White Sox selected right-handed reliever Nick Avila in last year’s Rule 5 Draft. The organization liked his pitch mix and potential to come out of the bullpen and his history with pitching coach Ethan Katz didn’t hurt either. He didn’t make the club out of spring training and was ultimately returned to the San Francisco Giants. The 6-4, 195 pounder posted a 3.00 ERA in 72 innings with San Francisco’s Triple-A affiliate. He’s technically Rule 5 eligible once again this time around. Avila was the franchise’s first big league Rule 5 selection since plucking Dylan Covey back in 2017.
The organization has had some success in the minor league phase of the draft in recent years. 31-year-old free agent catcher Omar Narváez has had a notable career so far and he was originally snagged by the White Sox before being dealt to the Mariners in exchange for righty Alex Colome. Yermin Mercedes had a memorable 29 game run with the White Sox in 2021 and while it didn’t last, Chicago wasn’t the expectation when the pick was made.
It’s generally easier to grab pitching in the Rule 5 Draft. It can often be difficult for fringe roster players to land on contending rosters, let alone stay on them for an entire season. The White Sox lost 101 games last year however and they can likely carry anyone within reason as long as the decision makers see some potential for long-term upside. The 40-man roster is at 39 currently and more space could be opened if necessary. The club could be open to adding more depth on the position player front, in the starting rotation or as a member of the bullpen. The White Sox could make a selection in either area and here are some potential options:
Tanner Burns, RHP, Cleveland Guardians
Burns was a supplemental first rounder in 2020 after starring as a member of Auburn’s rotation in college baseball. He possessed a solid fastball/slider combo and the Guardians saw him as a quick moving college arm. The 6-0, 210 pounder has posted a 3.31 ERA with a 25% strikeout rate in 251 minor league innings to this point. The 24-year-old displays excellent pitch metrics and throws his fastball in the 92-93 mph range. He also possesses a mid 80’s cut slider and an upper 70’s curveball. Burns posted a 3.01 ERA in 86.2 innings last year but he compiled a 1.35 ERA with 13 strikeouts and seven walks in 13.1 innings out of the bullpen to close out the season. He still walks too many guys but there’s upside here in a back end starting role or the potential for his stuff to really pop in relief.
R.J. Dabovich, RHP, San Francisco Giants
Brian Bannister may be pretty familiar with R.J. Dabovich. The 6-3, 210 pound right hander was one of the best relief prospects in baseball prior to sustaining some injuries. `He threw just 2.2 innings last season for Triple-A Sacramento after undergoing surgery for a right hip impingement. The 24-year-old has shown a 94-96 mph fastball with ride that has touched 99. He also displays a plus mid 80’s power curveball. Dabovich could be likely to get selected due to premium stuff and upper level experience. The former 4th rounder posted a 4.38 ERA in 24.2 innings in Triple-A to close out 2022. He averaged over 11 K/9 but walked too many hitters. Prior to that, Dabovich posted a 2.70 ERA in 26.2 innings while averaging 12.8 K/9 with 2.03 BB/9. Depending on how his rehab has gone, he could be stashed on the injured list for portions of the 2024 season as well.
Justin Dirden, OF, Houston Astros
Dirden is a top 30 prospect in the Houston system after signing as an undrafted free agent out of Southeast Missouri State back in 2019. He has battled hamstring injuries of late but he hits left-handed and can play all three outfield positions. The 26-year-old hit ten homers in Triple-A last season but slashed just .231/.314/.396. The 6-3, 210 pounder posted a 157 wRC+ with 20 bombs and a ton of walks in 2022 with the Astros’ Double-A affiliate. Dirden is an interesting player and his ability to play multiple outfield spots could get him selected. The White Sox lack outfield depth and they always need more left-handed hitters.
Shane Drohan, LHP, Boston Red Sox
Shane Drohan projects as a back end starter and he’s had an up and down career with the Red Sox. The southpaw throws a four seam fastball with a breaking ball, cutter and above-average changeup. The 24-year-old was very solid in Double-A last year but he struggled amid a promotion to Triple-A. The 6-3, 195 pounder posted a 1.32 ERA while averaging 9.5 K/9 and 2.38 BB/9 in six starts to begin the year. The lefty posted a 6.55 FIP send walked way too many hitters over the course of 89.0 innings with 19 starts in AAA. He could definitely be an option for a club with some patience.
J.T. Ginn, RHP, Oakland Athletics
The Los Angeles Dodgers selected Ginn out of Brandon High School in Mississippi in the first round of the 2018 draft but he declined to sign. He went to Mississippi State instead and became a second round pick of the New York Mets in 2020. The 6-2, 200 pound hurler has good stuff but he has a significant injury history. In 2023, Ginn posted an 8.06 ERA in 22.1 innings for the A’s Double-A affiliate. He’s currently a top 30 prospect for the Mets still but time is ticking after the amount of arm injuries that have been suffered. The 24-year-old has a sinker/slider combination that would fit well out of the bullpen.
Hudson Haskin, OF, Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles spent a second round pick on this outfielder out of Tulane in 2020. His power and speed combo got him drafted but he’s had some injuries as a professional. Haskin played 33 games in center field last year. He can play all three outfield spots but he did miss most of last season after undergoing hip surgery. The 24-year-old possesses plus speed but he just hasn’t hit for much power. The outfielder posted a 111 wRC+ in 95 Triple-A plate appearances. He posted a 126 wRC+ while slashing .264/.367/.455 with 15 homers in Double-A.
Devin Mann, UT, Kansas City Royals
Mann is a 26-year-old utility type bat-first player who the Kansas City Royals acquired from the Dodgers at last year’s deadline. Mann has played first base, second base, third base and some left field. With the Dodgers Triple-A affiliate, Mann clubbed 14 homers while posting a 127 wRC+. Mann has hit 70 minor league homers but he doesn’t possess much defensive value. He has shown a good approach and pull side power. Mann’s strikeout rate has increased as well. Gene Watson should know him as they overlapped in Kansas City last year.
Austin Pope, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Guys like this get selected pretty often during the Rule 5 Draft. Pope projects as a long reliever or bulk option out of a bullpen. The 6-3, 210 pounder throws a four seam fastball in the 94-96 mph range and showcases a mid 80’s gyro slider and two plane curveball as well. It’s just average stuff overall but the 25-year-old displays great command and control of his pitch mix. He made 19 appearances in Triple-A with Reno and the PCL environment is tough on hurlers. He posted a 2.45 ERA while averaging 11.45 K/9 in 22 innings pitched. Prior to that experience, Pope posted a 4.23 ERA in 44.2 innings with Double-A Amarillo as well. New assistant general manager Josh Barfield is likely familiar with the right hander as well.
Juan Sanchez, LHP, San Francisco Giants
Sanchez is another San Francisco Giants farmhand that Brian Bannister likely possesses some level of knowledge on. The 5-9, 165 pound southpaw has had success against righties and lefties throughout his minor league career. The lefty’s best pitch is a mid 80’s changeup that shows tumble and fade. As part of his four pitch mix, he also possesses a 92-93 mph two seam fastball and a pair of breaking balls. The variation between his fastball and changeup are stellar and his pitch data is likely valuable to teams. Last year at Triple-A for Sacramento, Sanchez posted a 4.26 ERA while averaging 9.9 K/9 in 25.1 innings. He also posted a 2.39 ERA in 49 innings in Double-A.
CJ Van Eyk, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Van Eyk posted a 2.51 ERA with a .196 opponent average against with 14 strikeouts in 14.1 innings in the Arizona Fall League this year. The 25-year-old was drafted in the second round of the 2020 draft by the Blue Jays out of Florida State. The 6-1, 200 pounder underwent Tommy John Surgery after 2021 and missed the entire 2022 season. He threw 34 innings this year but struggled at times battling more injuries. Van Eyk made 19 starts over the course of 80.1 innings in 2021. His 12-6 power curveball that sits in the 81-83 mph range remains his best offering and it was on display during the AFL. Van Eyk’s four seam fastball sits in the 92-94 mph range and he also shows a slider in the 84-86 mph range. He could potentially thrive in a more permanent move to the bullpen.
Think Burns will be gone by the time the Sox pick. Sort of think they will take Austin Pope or take a flier on Hudson Haskin. Think they will take someone.